NITheP Colloquium: How hard will COVID-19 hit South Africa? A story in three parts by Prof Bruce Bassett

Abstract:
We will present work on three separate research fronts all of which relate to the central theme of forecasting the impact of COVID-19 oon South Africa.  The first part addresses whether we can expect relief from the BCG vaccine, how much worse the spread of the virus will be in winter and the effect of blood type on the spread of the disease.  The second part addresses the infection fatality rate and the final part presents our work on a new national model of COVID-19 spread, and discusses where it differs significantly from other published models.

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